000
WTNT45 KNHC 091435
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

The cloud pattern of the cyclone features a curved band that wraps
around the eastern and southern parts of the circulation. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T2.5/35 kt, and that is used
for the initial intensity, making the system a tropical storm. The
environment appears conducive for some additional strengthening
during the next 24 hours or so, with SSTs above 28C and generally
light to moderate westerly shear. After that time, the shear
increases to 25-30 kt and SSTs along the forecast track fall below
27C by 72 hours. These factors should result in weakening, and all
of the global models show the cyclone dissipating in 4 to 5 days.
The NHC forecast follows these trends and is close to the various
consensus aids through the forecast period.

Based on geostationary imagery and a 0815Z SSMIS pass, the initial
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/08, with Nadine
currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. The ridge will
weaken as a mid/upper-level trough that Leslie is embedded in digs
southward along 40W longitude. This pattern will cause Nadine to
turn more northwestward by 24 hours. By 96 hours, a weakening Nadine
should bend back to the west as a shallow system. The new NHC track
forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one due to the new
initial position, and lies near HCCA through 48 hours and closer to
the TVCA multi-model consensus after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 10.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 11.1N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 11.9N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 13.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 14.3N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 16.7N  36.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 18.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan