000
WTNT45 KNHC 090952
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Geostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the
low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed
sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of
circulation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth
one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications
from both TAFB and SAB.  The depression is expected to strengthen a
little during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable
oceanic and atmospheric conditions.  Thereafter, a significant
increase in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler
SSTs should cause weakening.  The global models all show the
depression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official
forecast predicts dissipation accordingly.

The initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a
well-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt.  The
depression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in
that general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves
toward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that
Leslie is embedded in.  After that time, when the system weakens and
becomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast.  The models
are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1000Z 10.3N  29.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 10.6N  30.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 11.3N  32.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 12.4N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 13.6N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 16.1N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 17.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi