812 
WTNT45 KNHC 182029
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018

Deep convection has generally been on the wane during the past day
or so near the center of Joyce, and it is getting very close to no
longer having organized deep convection.  With the decrease in
overall organization, the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt.  An
environment of strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt)
and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C) should cause
Joyce to become a remnant low by late tonight or early Wednesday.
This agrees well with the latest global model guidance, and the
timing of remnant low status has been moved up to 12 hours (or
less).

The initial motion of Joyce continues to turn and is now south-
southwestward (205 degrees at 6 kt).  The depression is forecast
to turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central
Atlantic ridge builds to the north. Model guidance, except the HWRF,
is tightly clustered, so the new forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous one, closest to the HCCA consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 30.9N  27.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 30.2N  28.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z 29.6N  29.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z 29.1N  30.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Campbell/Blake