716 
WTNT45 KNHC 141442
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018

Joyce has again changed little in organization since the last
advisory, with several small bands of convection to the east and
northeast of the partly exposed center.  The initial intensity
remains 35 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates from
TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus.

The initial motion is now 180/7.  Joyce is currently being steered
by the larger and stronger Helene to its east, and a southward to
southeastward motion is expected for the next 12 h or so.  As
Helene passes to the east-northeast of Joyce, Joyce should turn
eastward and northeastward with a faster forward speed due to the
approach of a mid-latitude trough from the west.  The global models
have again trended toward a faster northeastward motion after 24 h,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to be faster and a
little farther to the east.

There is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy from the
previous advisory.  Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to
increase over the cyclone within the next day or two, which should
prevent Joyce from strengthening.  The NHC forecast calls for little
change in wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the
shear increases further.  The global models mostly dissipate Joyce
by day 4, but the system could lose its deep convection and become
post-tropical before that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 31.6N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 31.3N  44.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 32.0N  42.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 33.2N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 34.6N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 36.0N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven