808 
WTNT45 KNHC 180834
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018

Ernesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation
is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto
has become a post-tropical cyclone.  The system could still produce
35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to
slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland
and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical
cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland
and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday.

Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion
should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and
wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met
Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued
by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 51.9N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  18/1800Z 53.5N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  19/0600Z 55.0N   5.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila