000
WTNT45 KNHC 281451
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

The disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet, and it
still consists of a sharp trough extending from northern Florida
northeastward across the adjacent Atlantic.  The area of minimum
pressure appears to be located just east of the Georgia coast.
Nearby observations suggest that the winds remain about 30 kt.

The disturbance is moving over warm waters but the shear is quite
strong for the system to develop significantly.  On this basis, the
NHC forecasts the disturbance to become a tropical depression and a
tropical storm during the next 12 hour to 24 hours. Thereafter, the
shear will increase considerably, and most likely the system will
intensify as an extratropical cyclone. However, the exact timing of
the transition is uncertain since the cyclone will be moving over
warm waters.

It appears that the area of minimum pressure is moving toward the
north-northeast at 8 kt, but this is highly uncertain since we do
not have a center. This system is already embedded within the
mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead a trough, and this pattern
will steer the disturbance toward the northeast with a gradual
increase in forward speed. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is
schedule to be in the disturbance later today.

The track and intensity forecast, primarily during the extratropical
stage, is a blend of NHC forecast with the OPC guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 31.4N  80.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0000Z 32.4N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  29/1200Z 34.5N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 36H  30/0000Z 36.5N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 48H  30/1200Z 38.5N  69.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1200Z 42.5N  58.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1200Z 46.0N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1200Z 50.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila