000
WTNT45 KNHC 182037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017
500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

Deep convection associated with Don has continued to pulse near the
alleged center today, with an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity over the northern and northwestern portions of the system.
These rains have started to spread over the Windward Islands, and
sustained winds of 25 to 30 kt have been reported at Barbados during
the past few hours.  Satellite, microwave, and surface data continue
to suggest that the circulation of the system is likely not closed.
Another reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled this evening,
which should help to determine if Don is still a tropical cyclone.

The anticipated westward acceleration of the system seems to have
occurred, with the initial motion now westward or 275/19 kt.  Don or
its remnants should continue to move briskly westward during the
next day or so in the fast trade wind flow over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea.

Increasing westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and the fast westward
motion of the system are likely to cause the tropical storm to
degenerate into a trough of low pressure by late Wednesday, if not
sooner.  Given the fast forward speed, the remnants are likely to
continue producing wind gusts to near tropical storm force over the
next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 11.7N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 11.9N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 12.0N  67.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown