000
WTNT45 KNHC 021438
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

North-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical
storm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern
edge of a large mass of deep convection.  Arc clouds are also noted
to be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of
the presence of some dry air at mid levels.  Based on observations
from the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest
Dvorak estimates.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into
Dolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity.  Since the
system has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear,
some additional strengthening is certainly possible before
landfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more
rapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of
northeastern Mexico.

The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories.  The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 23.4N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch