000
WTNT45 KNHC 012036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a
well-defined center of circulation.  The system has a curved band of
deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation.  Thus the system is being designated as a
tropical depression at this time.  The maximum winds reported by the
aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt.  Although the
cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the
atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening.  Dynamical
models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly
vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36
hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.
After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous
terrain of Mexico.  The official wind speed forecast is a little
above the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11.  The
steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward.  The flow
to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36
hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall.  The official
track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 20.1N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch