000
WTNT45 KNHC 161453
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013
 
RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT INGRID MADE LANDFALL
NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT.  THESE DATA
INDICATE THAT INGRID WAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF
LANDFALL. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED IN MEXICO WAS FROM AN AUTOMATED
STATION NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO THAT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT
WITH A GUST TO 56 KT AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. INGRID
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRE MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
INGRID HAS NOT YET MADE THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN...AS THE
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT.  THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD SOON...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST
TO BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INGRID WEAKENS OVER LAND TONIGHT.
 
INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 23.8N  98.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0000Z 23.4N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1200Z 22.8N 100.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN