000
WTNT45 KNHC 160833
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS 
RELAXED A LITTLE OVER INGRID...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE
HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND.  THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
LGEM PREDICTION.

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...ALONG WITH THE
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS GAINED A
LITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6. 
HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING BY THE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS ALONG WITH
INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  THE LATTER FEATURE
TYPICALLY INDUCES A LEFTWARD BEND IN THE MOTION FOR LANDFALLING
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS REGION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST
HWRF MODEL TRACK.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 23.4N  97.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 23.3N  98.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0600Z 22.8N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1800Z 22.3N  99.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0600Z 22.0N 100.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH