000
WTNT45 KNHC 160256
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
INDICATE THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE MEAN TIME.
AROUND 21-22Z...A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987
MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 989
MB. THE HIGHEST WIND DATA OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 76 KT AT 850
MB...62-63 KT SFMR BIAS-ADJUSTED...DROPSONDE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 64 KT...AND A DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A BLEND OF
THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT...
WHICH MEANS THAT INGRID IS BARELY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS.
 
AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID
APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA.
 
A COMPARISON OF RADAR FIXES AT 35000 FEET AND THE RECONNAISSANCE
SURFACE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL
TILTING THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME
OF LANDFALL...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT INGRID IS MOVING INTO THE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 23.1N  96.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 23.2N  97.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 22.9N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 22.5N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART