000
WTNT45 KNHC 152031
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV
MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
PICTURES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF RECONNAISSANCE PLANES...ONE
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE...AND THE OTHER A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH
MISSION...SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH AND
SIZE OF INGRID THIS EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DECREASE ABOUT THE TIME
OF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH INGRID COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
BETWEEN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO.
 
INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
INGRID SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL.  THERE
IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...
AND THE NHC FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS
CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 22.7N  96.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 23.0N  97.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 23.0N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0600Z 22.6N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1800Z 22.2N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN