000
WTNT45 KNHC 151450
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF
INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE.  THE HIGHEST RAIN-CORRECTED SFMR
OBSERVATION WAS 58 KT.  A DROPSONDE NORTH OF THE CENTER SPLASHED
WITH 59 KT BUT THE LAYER-AVERAGED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS WERE 53-54
KT.  THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 990 MB...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT
THE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 65 KT.  THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF
RESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE PAST FEW FIXES POINT-TO-POINT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION...BUT A
LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 290/5.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL IS A LITTLE HARD TO NAIL DOWN GIVEN THE
SHEAR...AS A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST
WHILE A STRONGER ONE WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE LEISURLY PATH.
 
THE PRIMARY THREAT...APART FROM THE WIND HAZARD IN THE IMMEDIATE
LANDFALL AREA...IS GOING TO BE FROM RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT
FLOODING.  WITH BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
MANUEL BRINGING COPIOUS RAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO...LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 22.5N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 22.8N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 23.0N  97.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 22.8N  98.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1200Z 22.5N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN