000
WTNT45 KNHC 150853
TCDAT5
 
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF INGRID IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING...
THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 75 KT.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING INGRID AND WILL SOON PROVIDE MORE PRECISE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE INTENSITY...BUT PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM
THAT AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT INCREASE IN THE
WINDS.  INGRID WAS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME
RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...A VERY RECENT CENTER FIX FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATES
THAT INGRID HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH A MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 315/6.  FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL FORECAST.
  
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW
RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 22.4N  95.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 22.9N  96.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 23.1N  97.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 23.1N  98.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/0600Z 22.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0600Z 22.4N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH