000
WTNT45 KNHC 150238
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013
1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013
 
ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS AN INNER CORE REGION OF
LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDED BY A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR 30 KT...BUT
THE CENTER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WELL DEFINED TO FIT THE DEFINITION
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONLY T1.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...BUT GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW WIND SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND A
MOIST AIR MASS.  THIS ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BECOME A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  IN ADDITION...
THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF FROM ITS DEEP MOISTURE
SOURCE TO THE SOUTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE...MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/12 KT.  THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A
CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES...AND
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS.  ONCE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 4 TO
5 DAYS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...THE
OTHER TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 14.0N  23.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 14.5N  25.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.1N  27.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 15.7N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 16.5N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 17.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 17.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 17.5N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART