000
WTNT45 KNHC 050231
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012
 
OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING.  THE LARGE SYSTEM HAS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER.  A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...HAS FORMED A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A RECENT ASCAT
PASS HAD A SIZABLE AREA OF WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT ABOUT 90 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT
AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT.  DESPITE OSCAR MOVING
FASTER OVER WARM WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
DUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
SAME TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT
24H AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/10 KT.  THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOON
TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD ABSORB OSCAR IN ABOUT A DAY.  THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION.
 
STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST
INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO
FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 22.0N  40.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 24.0N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE