000
WTNT45 KNHC 042031
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012
 
OSCAR IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM.  SEVERAL LOW CLOUD
SWIRLS ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THAT CENTER.  SINCE THE STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS
NOT CHANGED SINCE THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 40 KT.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
THEREFORE ANTICIPATED.  OSCAR IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS
NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE
UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL PROVE TO BE RIGHT.
 
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10 KT.  OSCAR HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANTICIPATED...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPEED UP AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
DIGGING DEEP-LAYER LOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
UNTIL THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION...EVEN IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
LFPW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 21.3N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 22.8N  39.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 26.0N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG