000
WTNT45 KNHC 041444
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
 
ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE DEEP
CONVECTION ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DESPITE THE
HOSTILE CONDITIONS...OSCAR HAS STRENGTHENED...AND A 1300 UTC ASCAT
PASS INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 40 KT.  THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  STRONG SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING OSCAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR OSCAR TO
DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS WHEN IT GETS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT...
MATCHING THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
OSCAR HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
020/8 KT.  THE STORM IS APPROACHING STRONGER MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 20.6N  41.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 21.8N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 23.8N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG