000
WTNT45 KNHC 040832
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO
15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35
KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE
LATEST SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS OSCAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING OSCAR OPENING INTO A
TROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
 
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OSCAR IS QUITE BROAD WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS
EVIDENT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. THE LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING OSCAR TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. BY FRIDAY...A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS OSCAR...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL
LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 20.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 21.1N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 22.7N  40.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 24.9N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI