000
WTNT45 KNHC 031439
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
 
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE WERE CONFLICTING SIGNALS CONCERNING
THE EXISTENCE AND LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A MORE DEFINITIVE
CIRCULATION HAS TAKEN SHAPE...CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS
ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO DEEM THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  SINCE A CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
TO TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 320/13 KT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE AND GETS
PICKED UP IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
 
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY INCREASING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN FACT...EVERY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HOURS...AND THAT RESULT IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 17.3N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 19.1N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 20.6N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 22.2N  41.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 24.3N  38.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG