000
WTNT45 KNHC 241434
TCDAT5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
HAS BECOME ILL DEFINED...AND THE CIRCULATION ITSELF MAY NOT EVEN BE
CLOSED ANYMORE.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
WELL ORGANIZED.  JOYCE NO LONGER SATISFIES THE CRITERIA FOR BEING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT
LOW.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  

BASED ON ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS...JOYCE IS BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT
20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  THESE PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE APPRECIABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE
PROSPECTS OF REGENERATION AND STRENGTHENING APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME. 
THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS THE CYCLONE AS A REMNANT LOW
THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST...BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
LOW COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS IT
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE REMNANTS SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE IN 3-4 DAYS...AND ARE FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS 
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 17.8N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  25/0000Z 18.7N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/1200Z 20.3N  52.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0000Z 22.1N  55.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z 24.5N  58.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1200Z 29.0N  63.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 33.5N  62.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 37.5N  53.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG