000
WTNT45 KNHC 091439
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO IS MOVING ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
VICINITY OF COATZACOALCOS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF
MEXICO AND WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THE RAIN IN THE AREA.  BASED ON
RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50
KNOTS.  SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN
ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
ERNESTO IS ALREADY TRAPPED SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND THIS
FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WESTSOUTHWEST TRACK...BRINGING
ERNESTO INLAND OVER MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IS A DAY OR SO. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 18.2N  94.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.8N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/1200Z 17.5N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA