000
WTNT45 KNHC 090301
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
THE ROBUST CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS FINALLY MOVED OVER THE WATERS
OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN MEXICO. INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM INLAND AREAS
TO OVER WATER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND SEVERAL RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS
OF 55-57 KT IN THAT AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOUT 30 NMI OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. ERNESTO IS MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
GETS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 18.8N  91.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 18.7N  93.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 18.3N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/1200Z 17.9N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0000Z 17.6N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART