000
WTNT45 KNHC 082036
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
ERNESTO HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN...WHICH IS VERY NEAR
THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS 45 KT.  RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  GIVEN
THE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT
OF RE-STRENGTHENING WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE
STAYS OVER THE WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
ERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND
THEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  GIVEN THE
RELATIVE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK TO THE COASTLINE...ONLY A SLIGHT
DIRECTIONAL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ERNESTO SPENDS OVER
WATER...AND ITS LANDFALL INTENSITY.
 
AFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE
FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT
270/11.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
PREDICTION.  THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
BASIN.  THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 18.9N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 18.9N  93.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 18.5N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON THE COAST
 36H  10/0600Z 18.2N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1800Z 18.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH