000
WTNT45 KNHC 080858
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTED HEADER FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM
 
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AROUND THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION ON BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLAND JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 979.4 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE LAST COUPLE
OF GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 60 KT.
 
ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
APPROACHES ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA.
 
ERNESTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES FINAL
LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND AND
COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER LANDFALL...
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF MEXICO.
 
THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED SEVERAL CHANGES TO
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 18.9N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/1800Z 19.1N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  09/0600Z 19.2N  93.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  09/1800Z 19.1N  95.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  10/0600Z 18.8N  96.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/0600Z 18.5N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN