000
WTNT45 KNHC 061456
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION.  IT
IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION
OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED
AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A
HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS
IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
HWRF MODEL.
 
WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  ALTHOUGH THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 15.8N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 16.2N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 16.8N  84.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 17.5N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 18.2N  88.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 19.0N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 19.0N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 19.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH