000
WTNT45 KNHC 022046
TCDAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012
 
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE
IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION.  ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 270/19.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
FORECAST TRACK.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 12.8N  56.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.0N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 13.2N  62.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 13.6N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 14.2N  68.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 15.5N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 17.0N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 18.5N  83.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH