000
WTNT45 KNHC 292059
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SHARY MEASURED
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68
KT...AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATED WIND OF 53 KT.  A SUBSEQUENT
ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1442 UTC INDICATED BELIEVABLE WINDS IN THE 45-50
KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS
STRONG SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH...SHOULD IMPACT THE CYCLONE SOON. IN ADDITION...SHARY IS
CURRENTLY OVER ABOUT 25 C WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NONETHELESS...NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC
ENHANCEMENTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SHARY TRANSITIONING
TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOMING
ABSORBED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN AGREEMENT
WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
SHARY IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE IS STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE NEW
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 30.9N  65.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 33.1N  62.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 36.8N  56.8W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 41.3N  48.9W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART