000
WTNT45 KNHC 260233
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
 
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AGAIN NEAR THE
CENTER OF MATTHEW TONIGHT.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON
A 25-KT 10-MINUTE WIND FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO NORTH OF THE
CENTER AROUND 0000 UTC...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB IS
BASED ON AN OBSERVATION FROM TIKAL GUATEMALA AS THE CENTER PASSED
NEARBY.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
OVER LAND...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MATTHEW IS
LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12.  MATTHEW CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW
DRAMATICALLY.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT SEEMS LIKELY AS WHAT IS LEFT OF MATTHEW ROTATES
WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION AND A SOUTHWARD TREND IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. 
 
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH MATTHEW AND ITS REMNANTS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THERE WERE THREE OBSERVING SITES IN HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA THAT REPORTED BETWEEN 6.1 AND 7.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 0000 UTC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 17.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N  92.1W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N  92.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N  92.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.4N  92.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN