000
WTNT45 KNHC 072033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT
HERMINE IS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...HERMINE REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  DESPITE
BEING WELL INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN INNER
CORE AND RAINBANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN A FEW
DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/16...AND THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART
OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 29.9N  98.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 31.5N  99.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  99.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 36.6N  98.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 39.0N  95.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH