000
WTNT45 KNHC 070235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
 
THE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO
AROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE
FORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
ALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333
UTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT...WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56
KT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAK
WINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALL
INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE VELOCITIES FROM THE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL 
SHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO
TEXAS.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT
RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 25.5N  97.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 27.1N  98.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 34.7N  99.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 39.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN