000
WTNT45 KNHC 062038
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
 
LATEST AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION OF HERMINE IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 330/13.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT.  HERMINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST AND SHOWS THE CENTER
CROSSING THE COAST EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND MAXIMUM
SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS OF 47 KT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN EYE...BUT THE EYEWALL
IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THE LATEST
TRACK FORECAST...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR HERMINE TO
INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.  HOWEVER THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE
LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 24.5N  97.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 26.2N  98.3W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 28.5N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 38.0N  98.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI