000
WTNT45 KNHC 061431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
 
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 23.4N  95.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 24.9N  96.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 27.0N  98.3W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.1N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 36.0N  99.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI