000
WTNT45 KNHC 060251
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
 
THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING.  CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR.  ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.
 
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 20.7N  95.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 21.6N  95.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 23.3N  96.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.7N  98.4W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 26.4N  99.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN