000
WTNT45 KNHC 111444
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.  A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN BANDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS NOT CHANGED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO THE UPDATED INITIAL
POSITION.
 
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE SLOW.  IN
ADDITION...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW HAVE LESS TIME OVER WATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  AS A RESULT...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THE INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS IS UNLIKELY TO
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE CURRENT CYCLONE STRUCTURE.
 
ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONES SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS TYPICALLY WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THIS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH THIS
DEPRESSION.  IF THE DEPRESSION SLOWS DOWN AS FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 27.8N  86.8W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 28.6N  88.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 29.6N  89.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 30.4N  90.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 31.2N  90.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 32.6N  89.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 34.0N  87.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI