000
WTNT45 KNHC 081431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009
1100 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009
 
HENRI REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH EVIDENCE
FROM SATELLITE IMAGES OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DWINDLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE BANDING NOTED.
A 1012 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...AND
THIS VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
NEITHER OF THESE SITUATIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND
HENRI SHOULD JUST SLOWLY WEAKEN. ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY UNLESS THE SYSTEM SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  HENRI OR ITS REMNANT
LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 19.8N  62.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 20.1N  63.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.2N  65.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 20.2N  67.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 20.2N  70.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE