000
WTNT44 KNHC 202033
TCDAT4
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022
 
Satellite images, surface observations, and a recent ASCAT-B pass
indicate that the disturbance has not become any better organized
this afternoon and still resembles a surface trough with
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of
Mexico.  The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, and
therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value.
 
The chances of this system becoming a tropical storm continue to
decrease as the trough is expected to move inland this evening.
Even though the system will probably fall short of becoming a
tropical cyclone, the expected impacts are unchanged as heavy rains
and winds to tropical storm force, especially in gusts, are expected
to spread across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the
next several hours.  After landfall, the disturbance is expected to
weaken and dissipate on Sunday.
 
The disturbance continues to move northwestward at 12 kt on the
southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and that motion should
continue until the system dissipates on Sunday.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this
evening and tonight, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect.
 
2. Rain from the disturbance are beginning to affect the
northeastern coast of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas. This
rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. The system could 
also produce isolated moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of 
South Texas, but significant flooding impacts are not expected 
there.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 24.4N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  21/0600Z 26.3N  98.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi