000
WTNT44 KNHC 121447
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020
 
The center of Eta made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with
an estimated intensity of 45 kt shortly after the release of the
previous NHC advisory package.  Since that time, the center of Eta
has moved across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula.
Some weakening has occurred, but ship and buoy observations along
and just off the northeast Florida coast support an initial
intensity of 40 kt.  Little change in strength is expected when Eta
moves over the western Atlantic tonight and early Friday due to
moderate to strong southwesterly shear.  The ECMWF and UKMET models
indicate that Eta could strengthen after it merges with a frontal
zone and becomes extratropical well offshore of the east coast
of the United States late Friday and Friday night.  The NHC
forecast calls for some slight intensification of the extratropical
cyclone before it is absorbed by a large low pressure area over the
western Atlantic on Saturday.
 
Eta is moving northeastward at about 13 kt.  Eta should continue to
accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the
mid-latitude westerlies, ahead of a trough that will move
across the Great Lakes region on Friday.  The new official forecast 
is again a little faster than the previous NHC track, but the 
latest guidance did not require much cross-track change.  

Deep-layer moisture from that has spread northward along a 
frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall 
and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. 
See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your 
local National Weather Service office for additional information. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area
along portions of the northeast Florida Coast through early this
afternoon.
 
2. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact
portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas.
Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida
lasting into the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 30.2N  81.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 32.0N  79.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 34.1N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 37.3N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  14/1200Z 40.5N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown