410 
WTNT44 KNHC 162042
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
 
The center of Sally continued its slow trek inland across the
far western Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, and it is
now located over southeastern Alabama. The satellite and radar 
presentation of the storm has continued to degrade, and surface 
observations and Doppler radar data show that winds have continued 
to gradually decrease.  The initial intensity has been reduced to 
50 kt, and rapidly weakening should continue as the circulation 
moves farther inland.  Sally is forecast to become a tropical 
depression tonight or early Thursday, and degenerate into a remnant 
low in 36-48 hours.  The system is expected to be absorbed by a 
frontal boundary near the southeast U.S. coast on Friday.
 
Sally is moving north-northeastward at a slightly faster forward
speed of 6 kt.  The cyclone should turn northeastward and move at a
slightly faster forward speed as it become embedded within the
southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general
motion should continue until dissipation occurs.  The dynamical
models are tightly clustered and the NHC track is near the center
of envelope.
 
Although the winds and storm surge from Sally are expected to
continue to subside this evening, heavy rainfall and flooding will
continue to spread inland over southeastern Alabama, central
Georgia, and western South Carolina over the next day or so.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate
to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from
west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and
widespread flooding is expected across inland portions of Alabama,
central Georgia and upstate South Carolina, and widespread flooding
is possible across western/central North Carolina, and far southeast
Virginia.
 
2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
coastline of the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue this evening
within portions of the Tropical Storm warning area in southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 31.2N  86.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 31.9N  86.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1800Z 33.2N  84.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0600Z 34.2N  81.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown