000
WTNT44 KNHC 231504
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042019
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019

Chantal is currently producing only small bursts of convection over
the northern semicircle, and visible satellite imagery suggests
that the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined.  The
initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on current satellite
intensity estimates, but it is possible this is a little generous.
A combination of dry air and large-scale subsidence is expected to
prevent the return of persistent deep convection, and if current
trends continue Chantal could degenerate to a remnant low later
today or tonight.  The remnant low is expected to dissipate by
72 h, which is unchanged from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now 155/6.  There is little change to
either the forecast philosophy or the forecast track from the
previous advisory.  The cyclone is embedded in the subtropical
ridge, and the core of the ridge is forecast to shift from southwest
to northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days.  This
evolution should cause Chantal or its remnants to make a clockwise
half loop before the system dissipates.  Like its predecessor, the
new forecast track lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 36.6N  40.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 35.8N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 35.3N  42.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 35.3N  43.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 35.5N  44.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven