013 
WTNT44 KNHC 081436
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018

The cloud pattern of Debby this morning is definitely typical of a
tropical cyclone instead of a subtropical system with moderate
convection wrapping around the center, and a well defined
upper-level outflow in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and CIMMS SATCON still
support an initial intensity of 40 kt. A recent ASCAT pass suggest
that this estimate could be generous. Debby is already moving over
cooler waters, so a gradual weakening is anticipated before the
system becomes extratropical and then gets absorbed by a larger
trough. In fact, most of the reliable global models degenerate Debby
into a trough of low pressure on Thursday.

The initial motion is toward the northeast or 035 degrees at 10 kt.
The cyclone is embedded within a mid-latitude trough, and will
continue to move on this general northeastward track with some
increase in forward speed in tandem with the trough until
dissipation. The track models are in pretty good agreement on this
solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 41.2N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 42.4N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 44.2N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 46.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila