000
WTNT44 KNHC 090842
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017
500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017

It is difficult to depict the presence of a tropical cyclone on
satellite imagery. The previous convection near the possible center
has become completely detached while the circulation is becoming
elongated. In fact, my initial position and intensity are primarily
based on continuity. Rina is over very cold waters and a frontal
system is rapidly approaching the cyclone, so the NHC forecast calls
for Rina to become extratropical during the next 12 hours. Visible
images later this morning will probably help to determine the
structure of Rina if a cyclone exists by then.

Rina or the extratropical low should move fast toward the northeast
and then to the east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerly
flow. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was use in the
NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 44.5N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 49.0N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  10/0600Z 54.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  10/1800Z 55.0N  15.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila