000
WTNT44 KNHC 290851
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017

Lee's low-level center is partially exposed along the northern edge
of the convective canopy due to almost 40 kt of northerly shear.
ASCAT data from last evening showed winds as high as 70 kt, so
assuming some weakening due to the belligerent shear, the initial
intensity is lowered to 65 kt.  Lee will be crossing the tight SST
gradient to the north of the Gulf Stream within the next 6-12
hours, and along with continued strong shear, this should cause the
cyclone to weaken further and become a tropical storm later today.
Global model guidance then indicates that Lee will dissipate in the
fast flow ahead of an approaching cold front by 36 hours.  Even
after Lee's circulation opens up, a swath of strong winds will
likely continue eastward toward Ireland and the United Kingdom by
days 2 and 3.

Lee is accelerating northeastward with an initial motion of 040/22
kt.  The cyclone should maintain that heading with its speed
increasing further up until the time it dissipates.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered for the next 24 hours before
dissipation, and the NHC forecast is mainly an update of the
previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 38.3N  52.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 41.1N  48.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 45.4N  39.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg