000
WTNT44 KNHC 182035
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

The convective burst that occurred near the center of Lee this
morning has dissipated leaving only a low-level cloud swirl.  The
initial intensity of the system is held at 30 kt, in agreement
with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The shear over Lee
is estimated to be close to 40 kt according to the SHIPS model,
and these very hostile winds and dry air should cause Lee to weaken
and degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours.
The GFS and ECMWF suggest that whatever is left of Lee will likely
open into a trough in 36 to 48 hours.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt steered by the
southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic.  The weak system is expected to turn to the
northwest and slow down tonight as it moves toward a trough, and it
should continue in that direction until it dissipates.  Little
change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one
remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 15.0N  42.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 16.0N  43.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z 17.2N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z 18.7N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi