000
WTNT44 KNHC 172049
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

A small burst of deep convection re-formed near Lee's center, but
since the earlier ASCAT pass barely showed 30 kt, that will remain
the initial intensity.  Increasing shear and a dry mid-level
environment will continue to take a toll on Lee during the next few
days.  Gradual weakening is still expected, and Lee could lose
organized deep convection by 36 hours, if not sooner.  The GFS and
ECMWF models degenerate the system into a surface trough by day 3,
and dissipation is now indicated in the NHC forecast at that time.

Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt, but it should turn
west-northwestward soon due to the weakness of the subtropical
ridge to its north.  A west-northwestward or northwestward motion
should continue until Lee dissipates on day 3.  Little change was
required to the updated NHC track forecast, which lies close to the
consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.2N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 13.5N  38.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 14.3N  40.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 15.4N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1800Z 16.6N  43.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg