000
WTNT44 KNHC 162035
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

Lee has changed little in organization since the last advisory, and
the low-level center appears to be located along the northern edge
of a persistent cluster of deep convection.  Dvorak estimates have
not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt based on
the earlier ASCAT data.

Lee is moving westward, or 270/9 kt, to the south of a weak
mid-level ridge, and it should maintain that trajectory for the
next 24 hours.  After that time, a break in the ridge should
develop, but the weak nature of the cyclone should prevent it from
turning too sharply toward the northwest.  The updated NHC track
forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, and it
continues to lie south of the various consensus aids, closest to
the HCCA model.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so,
but continued north-northwesterly shear is likely to prevent
significant intensification.  Weakening is anticipated from 48
hours onward due to increasingly hostile shear, and Lee is likely
to become a depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low
by day 5.  The intensity models have come down a little on this
cycle, and the NHC forecast is actually a little generous, staying
close to the SHIPS model along the upper bound of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 12.6N  34.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 12.6N  35.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 12.7N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 13.2N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 13.9N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 15.9N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 17.5N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 18.5N  51.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg