000
WTNT44 KNHC 150850
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017

The cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized
several hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time,
the structure has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers suggest that
the winds are still 30 kt.  Currently, the cyclone is embedded
within a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast
calls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days.  However,
the global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large
upper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high
shear over the cyclone by day 4.  This should result in weakening as
indicated in the forecast.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is
moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt.  The depression is
being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north.  The same
trough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the
subtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the
west-northwest beyond 3 days.  The NHC track is very close to HFIP
corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These
two models have been performing very well so far this season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 10.6N  27.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 11.0N  28.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 11.1N  30.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 11.2N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 11.3N  32.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 12.2N  35.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 13.5N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 15.0N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila