000 WTNT44 KNHC 301448 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Harvey has changed little in organization since landfall, with satellite and radar data showing continued convective banding, most notably in the northwestern quadrant. Winds gusts of 35-45 kt have been reported over the coastal regions south of the center, and the central pressure has risen only slightly to 993 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. It should be noted that a large area of winds just below tropical-storm-force is occurring over the Gulf of Mexico south of the coasts of south-central and southeastern Louisiana. Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Harvey moved northward for a period of several hours near landfall, but now is resuming a north-northeastward motion of roughly 020/7. The cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric high, which should steer it north-northeastward and then northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys during the next few days until the system dissipates. Harvey should gradually weaken as it moves farther inland, with the intensity expected to drop below tropical-storm strength shortly after the 12 h point. Subsequently, the system should decay to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipate completely by 96 h. The forecast weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along Harvey's path, although the system's faster motion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what occurred over southeastern Texas. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life- threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 30.5N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven