000
WTNT44 KNHC 290900
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Heavy rains continue to spread over the Houston area and other
locations in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana,
exacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event.  Rainfall
totals exceeding 40 inches have been observed at several locations
in the Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas.  Storm totals
could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for
the area.

The center of Harvey is moving slowly over the waters of the
extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and there continues to be
essentially no deep convection near that center.  The current
intensity is estimated to still be 40 kt based on surface
observations from buoys and land stations.  Given the lack of
central convection and strong south-southwesterly shear over the
system, significant restrengthening is not anticipated before the
center crosses the coast again within 36 hours or so.  Gradual
weakening will occur after landfall.

Harvey has turned from an east-southeastward to an eastward
heading and the initial motion is now about 100/3 kt.  The storm
should turn northeastward to north-northeastward over the next
couple of days as a ridge to the northwest of the system
weakens and Harvey is steered around the western side of a ridge
to the east.  Some further eastward adjustments to the official
track forecast were made, following the latest model consensus
forecasts.  However, it is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track since the main threat from Harvey, heavy rain and
flooding, can and will occur well removed from the track of the
center.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 7
to 13 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into
southwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50
inches.  Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt
to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways.  Refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals
compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther east into Louisiana.
Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches are expected in
south-central Louisiana.  Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
expected in southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi and
Alabama.  Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office and the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding
hazard in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 28.1N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 28.3N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 28.8N  93.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 29.9N  93.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/0600Z 31.1N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/0600Z 33.7N  90.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  02/0600Z 36.0N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/0600Z 37.5N  83.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch